We cannot underestimate the impact the worldwide pandemic will have on the economy. Or to what degree it will limit opportunities for families served by workforce and education professionals. At this point in time, we just don’t know the full economic or psychological impact of the coronavirus.
However, FCM’s experience with education and workforce clients over the past two decades gives us a framework to make some projections. We worked with clients through the last financial crisis and technological change, and our research and management teams are continuously analyzing the most current studies, news and opinions in our fields of expertise.
Specific Impacts for Educational Institutions Serving Students and Adult Learners
Noted below are FCM’s COVID-19 considerations for K12, community colleges and organizations serving adult learners.
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Increased unemployment will likely lead to an increase in poverty and a decrease in median incomes. This tends to benefit career education because the types of jobs offered through its various pathways often are considered to be low-risk career options – “safe” choices. But, many people in low-paying jobs in hospitality, retail and other industries will need to be the target of significant outreach and awareness-building activities. The goal being to boost their awareness of career education and to address lingering concerns about their ability to succeed in postsecondary education.
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Certain trends will accelerate, including continuing concern about the cost of college, a willingness to consider options beyond a four-year degree, more interest in short-term certificates and re-training programs. We would, however, expect to see a shift in interest in industry clusters, depending on the details of the financial stimuli currently being drafted and passed in Congress. We would anticipate healthcare careers and construction clusters would be popular, as well as others, depending on the structure of the stimuli.
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This is the second financial crisis many potential students have experienced in their short lifetimes and the third for those old enough to have been impacted by the dot-com/Sept. 11 downturn. We can expect that this experience has shaped their worldview. We will know more about the psychological impact and how that changes views on finances and education in the coming weeks or months.
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School closures and online learning will have a significant impact on community college students’ and high school seniors’ success this school year. With schools moving to online learning in a massive nationwide experiment, we don’t yet know the end result. Still, we have some information available from a recent study comparing face-to-face learning with online learning at the postsecondary level: The primary influence on individual course grades was student GPA. Interestingly, a model-based interaction between course type and student GPA indicated a cumulative effect whereby students with higher GPAs will perform even better in online courses (or alternatively, struggling students perform worse when taking courses in an online format compared to a face-to-face format).
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Initial anecdotal reports from FCM’s community college customers that have moved to online learning in the past few weeks support the above, as well as the impact of the technology gaps in households unprepared and unfamiliar with online learning.
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Several additional issues will make online learning a more significant challenge for students, at least this year, and possibly into the fall. One challenge is with access, as low-income students are currently struggling with access to devices and the internet. Another is we are all experiencing hiccups, as 91% of all students worldwide suddenly are schooling online. This impacts retention of current community college students who don’t do well in a strictly digital environment, but it also can discourage struggling seniors in high school from pursuing higher education and displaced workers from attempting to return to school.
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Almost all students who are parents struggle with childcare. COVID-19 has exacerbated this problem for many current and prospective students, whether they are essential workers or displaced workers. For parents of school-age children, the situation is even more complex as they find themselves suddenly thrown into home-schooling. Conversely, having had an up-close and personal taste of schooling again, this may be an impetus for parents to return themselves.
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We do not know the results yet of the “grand digital learning experiment.” Still, we can surmise, with governors across the country reviewing, relaxing and revising testing, graduation and grade advancement requirements, there will be wide levels of preparedness to enter career education programs in the fall (online or in the classroom).
Specific Impacts for Workforce Organizations Serving Jobseekers and Employers
Noted below are FCM’s considerations for workforce development boards, American Job Centers and community-based organizations serving job seekers, dislocated workers and employers amidst COVID-19.
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It’s likely that the economic impact of the virus will hit different sectors at different times, due to supply chain disruptions and new innovative ways of managing businesses. Some sectors will be hiring as other sectors lay off workers, with impacts on some sectors hard to predict at this time. Rapid re-employment strategies will need to be deployed and monitored.
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Depending on government intervention, the recovery could be swift or it could linger for years, impacting jobseekers and dislocated workers struggling to find companies that are actually hiring for their skill sets.
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Workforce organizations need to have more focus on the available tools and funding for small businesses to help them recover and expand opportunities for jobseekers.
Visit FCM’s new microsite to learn how we help workforce and education organizations use crisis communications strategies during COVID-19 and schedule a consult with FCM’s CEO to discuss adaptation to a virtual operational model.
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